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AREA (Asian Real Estate Association) is the largest and most respected International Real Estate Association with members from over 130 countries including the U.S., Canada, Europe etc. Cliff Roe was recognized in September of 2013 for ranking # 11 worldwide in listings closed.
 
The Pinellas County MLS has recognized Cliff for listing and closing more properties than any other agent or team for 2012 and 2013.
 
Report: Slow and Steady Markets Pulling Ahead of Others. January 8, 2014

After observing a “first in, first out” recovery over the past year in which markets hardest hit during the housing downturn experienced the fastest-paced recovery, Clear Capital is now examining whether the housing market, in fact, follows the allegory of “The Tortoise and the Hare.” The analytics firm observed price movement and offered its predictions for the new year in its Home Data Index released Monday.

Nationally, Clear Capital expects a major deceleration in home price gains this year. After rising 11.3 percent in 2013, Clear Capital expects prices to rise just 3.4 percent in 2014—“a sign of calibration toward long-run historical average rates of growth.”

This slowdown “is a healthy move for the broader housing recovery as gains move back into a more sustainable, historical range,” said Alex Villacorta, VP of research and analytics at Clear Capital.

Nine of the 50 largest metro areas are poised for price declines this year, while 34 should reach price gains of up to 5 percent, according to Clear Capital.

Seven markets will experience price gains higher than 5 percent, according to Villacorta.

Of the top 50 markets, Chicago is expected to experience the greatest home price increase this year—an 11.2 percent rise.

Atlanta, Georgia (7.5 percent), San Francisco, California (6.5 percent), Fresno, California (6.1 percent), and Tampa, Florida (5.5 percent) fall in line next at the top of the list.

 
Hedge Funds Will Return by Cliff Roe: November 25, 2013

TAMPA BAY - I am forecasting a return of the hedge funds to our market. Most of the vacant properties they owned have been rented. To continue the concept of buying, renting and selling at a profit will require the infusion of additional funds. Why should you care? Think of a pyramid. If the bottom crumbles every layer above it falls. Hedge funds buy the lower levels and make them stronger...adding support for the layers above. They also create a market for move up buyers. Prices have increased 10-14% since the housing market bottomed. The return of the hedge funds adds support and the potential for additional increases.

 
Florida foreclosure rate again No. 1  By
Published:   |   Updated: November 14, 2013 at 07:08 AM

TAMPA — Florida reclaimed the title of America's foreclosure capital last month, but it's partly because of a positive development: Lenders are taking more homes to foreclosure auctions, the real estate analytics firm RealtyTrac says.

A rush of home investors has created a strong market for foreclosed homes, which is encouraging lenders to sell them through clerk of court auctions, RealtyTrac says. Eventually that should help lenders clear out their huge backlog of homes in foreclosure and those banks already have repossessed.]

Florida previously ranked second to Nevada in foreclosures, but the Sunshine State pulled ahead of Nevada in October, according to RealtyTrac, which lists foreclosed homes for sale. One in every 332 homes in Florida last month received some type of foreclosure filing, whether it was an initial foreclosure notice, a notice of court auction or a repossession by a lender. Nevada's foreclosure rate was 1 in 407 homes.\The Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater area ranked fifth in the country in foreclosures among large metropolitan areas last month, with 1 in 302 homes getting some kind of foreclosure filing.

Things might not be as bad locally as those national rankings suggest

First, Florida always looks bad in foreclosure rankings because foreclosures here have to wind their way through the court system; some other states have speedier, nonjudicial foreclosures. Those states have cleared their backlog of foreclosures, RealtyTrac Vice President Daren Blomquist said

Lenders also seem to be more willing to sell homes in foreclosure lately instead of allowing foreclosures to linger in the court system. In Florida, the number of notices of foreclosure sale — in which lenders schedule a foreclosure auction through the clerk of court — reached a three-year high in October, Blomquist said. Lenders filed 11,606 notices of foreclosure sale in Florida last month.

 
Mortgage Rates Ease to Close October

October 31, 2013

Softening trends in the housing market brought fixed mortgage rates to their lowest level since June this week, according to data from Freddie Mac.

The GSE’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the average 30-year fixed rate falling to 4.10 percent (0.7 point) for the week ending October 31, down from last week, when it averaged 4.13 percent. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) was averaging 3.39 percent.

The 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.20 percent (0.7 point), a decline from 3.24 percent.

 

Housing Market Performs Well Despite Rise in Interest Rates

 

October 26, 2013

 

Mortgage rates are inching higher and higher, but the market does not seem to be paying any heed as it continues to show signs of improvement, according to the HousingPulse Tracking Survey released this week. It indicates the emerging slowdown in home purchases appears to be largely seasonal with a number of key indicators--distressed sales, time on market, and purchase offers--still in positive territory.

 
TALLAHASSEE – State officials are trying to bring more private insurance companies into the state with the hopes that they would write flood insurance, freeing Floridians from steep rate increases that recently took effect in the National Flood Insurance Program.

Rebecca Matthews, deputy chief of staff for the Office of Insurance Regulation, said there are a few companies that write flood insurance policies in Florida and the office is looking to persuade other companies to do so as well.

The reason: the federal government's flood insurance provider is phasing out subsidized rates on 268,000 high-risk Florida property owners, most located in coastal or flood-prone inland areas. As a result, rates for these properties have tripled or more.

Gov. Rick Scott and Realtors have said the increases will cripple Florida's housing market by making these properties unaffordable. And lawmakers said their offices have been bombarded with calls from constituents worried about how to pay their premiums.

At a meeting of the Senate Banking and Insurance Committee Tuesday, many members asked whether Florida could start its own flood insurance program and potentially offer lower rates.

 

August Existing Home Sales At Pre-Recession High

Existing home sales rose an unexpected 6.5 percent in August to an annual sales rate of 5.48 million, the highest level since February 2007 – ten months before the onset of the Great Recession — the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected existing home sales to drop to 5.255 million from July’s originally reported July’s 5.39 million sales pace which was unchanged in today’s report.

The increase in sales came as the median price of an existing single family home in August dipped slightly from July, down $300 to $212,100. It was the second straight month-month price drop.

 
FORECLOSURE LAWS - FLORIDA

Changes in Florida foreclosure laws. Historically it has taken an average of 683 days to foreclose on a property in Florida. On Jan 1, 2014 a new law fast-tracts this process and is expected to reduce the time to 90 days. This means a 700% jump in foreclosures is coming. The hedge funds overpaid and failed to figure in the cost of property management....this group of properties, which is already upside down, could find values further eroding causing them to sell inventory at massive discounts. The combination could be detrimental to values in the $100k to $250k price range.

     
August 5, 2013

Declines in delinquency rates are being reported by several major sources. They say interest rate increases are not a problem. The change is attributed to an increase in home prices flipping more houses from underwater to treading water or moving out of danger. This is allowing people to change jobs and relocate which is expected to aid the overall economy.

   
     
July 22, 2013

Survey: 54% of YouWalkAway Clients Past Due but Not in Foreclosure by Esther Cho

YouWalkAWay.com, a national foreclosure agency, recently released a June 2013 survey of its customers and found 54 percent are in pre-foreclosure, meaning they have defaulted on their mortgage but have not received an official foreclosure notice.

Percentage of YouWalkAway clients in pre-foreclosure and average number of months past due. Source: YouWalkAway.com

The share is down from 2012, when 85 percent of YouWalkAWay clients reported they were in pre-foreclosure. On average, clients who were in pre-foreclosure were 20 months behind on their mortgage payments.

According to the agency, pre-foreclosures are typically unaccounted for since reliable data is hard to find. However, YouWalkAway was able to compile pre-foreclosure data based on its client base to gain a better understanding of how prevalent this type of “shadow inventory” might be.

Data from the agency revealed Georgia has the highest share of YouWalkAway clinets in pre-foreclosure, at 82 percent. On average, clients in the state were behind by 18 months, but still haven’t been served with an official foreclosure notice.

The state that saw the biggest year-over-year decrease in clients in pre-foreclosure inventory was Florida, where 23 percent of clients were in pre-foreclosure, down from 45 percent in 2012. The average number of months past due though increased from 17 months in 2012 to 23 months in 2013.

     
July 17, 2013

Report: Traditional Buyers Need to Fill the Widening Cash Buyer Void

If it wasn’t for cash sales during the housing downturn, sales today would look much weaker, and the dramatic price declines over the past few years would have been even steeper, according to the latest MarketPulse report from CoreLogic.

According to the report, from 2000 to 2005, cash sales remained steady, representing around 25 percent of all sales. When the real estate market crashed in 2007 and 2008, the share of cash sales—driven by the rise in REO sales—jumped and eventually peaked above 40 percent two years ago.

While cash sales still remain elevated, they are past their prime point and are slowly fading. For 19 straight months now, cash sales have been declining gradually on year-over-year basis.

According to the data provider, cash sales represented 39 percent of sales in May 2013, down from 40 percent a year ago. Cash sales have also provided a major boost to prices in certain markets. Overall, CoreLogic stated median prices for cash sales increased 24 percent year-over-year compared to 15 percent for all sales.

CoreLogic also examined cash sale trends among the 10 largest markets.

According to the report, the idea that hardest hit markets have the largest share or increase in cash sales is a “myth.” For example, New York actually had the highest cash sales share at 53 percent, though hard-hit markets such as Riverside, California, and Phoenix also held high shares that exceeded 40 percent.

Interestingly, in some markets, investor activity has shifted from REO and short sales to non-distressed sales, leading an a surge in prices for non-distressed cash resales, CoreLogic explained.

The markets where prices for non-distressed cash sales increased the most year-over-year in April this year were Atlanta (+46 percent), Phoenix (+34 percent), and Riverside (+28 percent).

As cash sales wane with investor activity, the data provider pointed to the need for traditional and first-time buyers to play a bigger role in housing to help the recovery move forward.

However, CoreLogic concluded “rising rates and home prices will not dissuade the more traditional buyer from entering the market and financing a home purchase” since home affordability remains high and supply is increasing.

     
June 31, 2013

Home price gains bring sellers off the sidelines

by Elliot Spaget - Associated Press

Soaring prices are leaving fewer homeowners owing more money than their properties are worth, bringing them off the sidelines of the nation's surging housing market and offering relief to buyers who are frustrated by bidding wars. As more homes are put up for sale, price increases are expected to moderate.

Mark Fleming, chief economist at real estate data provider CoreLogic Inc., calls it "a virtuous circle."

"The fact that house prices have increased so dramatically ... has unlocked a lot of that pent-up supply," said Fleming, whose firm found that markets with the largest percentage of "underwater" or "upside down" mortgages often have the lowest supply of homes for sale.

Nevada had a nation-high 45.4 percent of mortgages underwater, followed by Florida at 38.1 percent, Michigan at 32 percent and Arizona at 31.4 percent. Montana had a nation-low 5.6 percent.

Among major metropolitan areas, Tampa Bay had a nation-high 41.1 percent of mortgaged homes underwater, followed by Miami at 40.7 percent. Dallas had a nation-low 8.3 percent.

     
June 21, 2013

Florida housing market thrives as foreclosure woes and cash buyers fade

Florida’s housing market is recovering, actually for some time now. As one of the hardest-hit metros during the housing crisis, it also enjoys one of the strongest comebacks during the recovery.

It seems now the Florida market is thriving as much as ever, according to data from Florida Realtors. Though the inability to fully quantify the all-cash investor's fading presence in the market is dampening the good news.

"Home sales continue to increase, it’s taking less time for sales to close, and median sales prices are on the rise," said 2013 Florida Realtors President Dean Asher. "This is the 17th month in a row that we’ve seen the statewide median sales prices increase year-over-year for both single-family homes and for townhome-condo properties."

As Florida residents begin to see the momentum in the Florida market, more sellers are deciding to list their property for sale. Statewide, new listings for single-family homes rose 10.2% in May, while new townhome-condo listings increased 7.1%. 

Closed sales of existing single-family homes equaled 22,375 in May, an 18.7% increase year-over-year, according to data from Florida Realtors Industry Data and Analysis department in partnership with local Realtor boards/associations. 

Pending sales — contracts that are signed, but not yet completed or closed — for existing single-family homes increased 30.8% year-over-year in May, an indicator that the tight inventory crunch is soon to lessen. 

Median sales price for a Florida single-family existing home was $171,000, a 15.9% increase from the previous year. However, Florida remains low compared to the national median sales price for existing-single family homes, which sits at $193,300, up 11% from the previous year.

     
June 21, 2013

As the foreclosure process drags on in certain states, sometimes the homeowner will beat the lender and leave before a foreclosure sale date is set.

According to RealtyTrac’s estimate, 167,680 properties in foreclosure have been abandoned by their owner. The total represents 20 percent of all foreclosures. Adding to this total are the more than 540,000 banked-owned properties still waiting to be sold to a third party.  With 55,503 vacant foreclosures, Florida alone accounted for 33 percent of the national total. Tampa Bay has 998 vacant properties.

     
June 13, 2013

CoreLogic: 850K Borrowers Rise Out of Negative Equity in Q1

Significant improvements in home values helped lift 850,000 borrowers out of negative equity in the first quarter, CoreLogic reported. Overall, 9.7 million borrowers, or 19.8 percent of all residential mortgages, were underwater in the first quarter of 2013, down from 10.5 million, or 21.7 percent of all mortgages, in the previous quarter, according to the data provider’s estimate.

The state with the highest share of upside down borrowers was Nevada, where 45.4 percent of residential mortgages are underwater. Other states in the top five included Florida (38.1 percent), Michigan (32 percent), Arizona (31.3 percent), and Georgia (30.5 percent). According to CoreLogic, the five states alone account for 32.8 percent of all negative equity in the nation.

     
June 3, 2013

It's time to sell!

Locally and around the country the prices of single family homes are rising. Much of the increase is directly related to supply and demand. A balanced market has a six (6) month supply. For the past few years the supply has exceeded a year. Nationally the supply is just over four (4) months. Locally we have 2,663 for sale while averaging 903 sales per month or a 2.95 month supply. This is the best opportunity for a seller since early 2006.

     
May 22, 2013

Report High Sold-To-List Price Ration Confirms Bidding Way Activity

Last year, some analysts were speculating the large supply of REOs and shadow inventory would keep the market depressed, but instead, the market is dealing with a lack of inventory available for sale. ProTeck Valuations Services noted in its May Home Value Forecast (HVF); "In reality the shortage of Housing Inventory has led buyers to bid more competitively against one another leading to significant home price increases and tighter housing conditions," said Tom O'Grady, CEO of ProTeck

     
May 20, 2013

NAR Speculates on Future of Housing at Realtor Expo.

At the Realtors Midyear Legislative Meetings & Trade Expo, NAR's chief economist Lawrence Yun projected further increases in existing-home sales. According to a release, Yun expects existing-home sales to increase to nearly 5 million this year, then grow to an annual rate of 5.3 million sales in 2014, and rise to 5.7 million in 2015. NAR projects the median existing home price will increase to about 8 percent this year from 6.4 percent in 2012, and then slow to 5 percent in 2014.  NOTE: in the late 1990's and early 2000's, 6 million new home sales were considered normal.

     
May 8, 2013

Experts See Risk of a Housing Bubble Resulting from Fed Policies

A majority of real estate experts responding to a recent Zillow survey expressed some concern that the Federal Reserve’s current policies could lead to another housing bubble. Only 4 percent of respondents are not at all worried about a bubble resulting from the Fed’s monetary policy that is keeping mortgage rates down. However, 48 percent see the Fed’s policies as “a little risky,” and the remaining 48 percent categorized the risk as “moderate to high risk.”

Experts expect prices to end this year 5.4 percent higher than their level at the start of the year. After ending 2012 at $156,800, the median price would end this year at $165,280, according to this forecast.

From 2015 through 2017, experts suggest a more modest rise per year of 3.5 to 3.7 percent.

     
April 29, 2013

As America's fastest-growing immigrant group, Asians find a growing voice

According to Alex Leary, Times Washington Bureau Chief; The fastest-growing immigrant group in the United States, sweeping in cultural, political and demographic changes. • Hispanics? No. • The wave flows from China, Vietnam, South Korea, the Philippines and India — Asians who are asserting themselves economically, scrambling elections and have much at stake as Congress begins to tackle immigration reform. • "It's been building for years but we have a place at the table," said Shekar Narasimhan, an Indian-American entrepreneur in the Virginia suburbs of Washington. "We can't be ignored anymore. It feels terrific."

NOTE: In Florida the Asian population is 2.7% of the total. In the Tampa Bay area Asians represent 4.7%. As a group people of Asian descent have obtained a higher level of education and earn more money than the average household.

     
April 18, 2013

Is The Housing Recovery Real?

It seems every article on real estate shouts housing is leading the U.S. economy out of its slump. Tampa Bay is one of the nine markets hedge funds concentrate on (Pinellas, Hillsborough & Pasco). I decided to do some research since it doesn't appear the media is. Here is what I found when comparing the first quarter of 2012 with 2013. The hedge fund preferred home is a 3/2 in a good school district, built after 1984, contains between 1,600 and 2,200 square feet and can be purchased between $84,000 and $240,000. In 2012 there were 509 sales vs 594 in 2013 = +16%. The average purchase price was $148,120 in 2012 and $160,235 in 2013 = + 8% and the average sq ft price paid was $80.17 in 2012 and $86.74 in 2013 = 8%. In 2012 the average rent sought would have been $1,480 a month and $1,625 in 2013 = +9%. Unless household income is rising at the same rate as rents this can't be maintained.

Hedge funds are not buying condos or waterfront, just the most desirable property for a family with children; a 3/2 block home in a good school district. The math says this can't continue forever; therefore, one of two things will most likely happen; massive inflation to save the investor or a heavy sell off as money moves out of housing into other areas. I'm not predicting the future. I became the number one agent in Pinellas by being honest with each client. Condos, waterfront and luxury properties are not caught up in the buying frenzy but if you are a family seeking a 3/2 in a good school district, let the buyer beware.

     
April 8, 2013

Asking Home Prices Move Higher, Single-Family Rents at Stand-Still

With the spring house hunting season upon us, Trulia reported a 7.2% year-over-year increase in asking prices on the national level. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices rose 1.1% month-over-month. On the other hand, rent price growth for single-family homes, at least showed signs of stagnancy in March. Nationally rent for single-family homes increased .1% year-over-year.

Note: The housing bubble ended because household income could not sustain the increase in values. The Hedge Fund buyers off Wall Street may soon learn the same lesson applies to rents. Beware, another housing bubble could be in our future.
     
March 26, 2013

Florida saw prices rise .4% from Dec to Jan but remains 39.5% below its peak in April of 2006.

     
March 22, 2013

The time to sell is a waiting game for some

Daren Blomquist, vice president of RealtyTrac, says homeowners who purchased during the down market of the last two or three years would be wise to move up in 2013.

"Because they bought near the bottom, these homeowners should have built up some good equity that can go toward the purchase of a new home, and waiting longer to build more equity likely won’t provide much advantage given that other homes that they might want to move up to will also be appreciating at roughly the same pace," said Blomquist.

He added, "In addition, the low interest rates of 2013 are certainly not guaranteed to last forever."

According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage rates are expected to reach 4.4% in the next 12 months and the 20-year average could possibly hit as high as 6.5%.

     
March 6, 2013

Critics: Qualified Mortgage Rule to Set Up Another Meltdown

The article offers as an example a mortgage with a 3 percent down payment, a 580 FICO score, and a 50 percent debt-to-income ratio—a loan that would have been considered subprime before the financial crisis. Such a loan will now be marketed as prime if it is declared eligible for purchase by one of the GSEs or for insurance from the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), they say. (They also note that FHA does approve loans with similar characteristics.). The article went on to say that common sense has been removed from lending standards...another housing meltdown is in on the way.

     

3/1/2013

 

RealtyTrac: Distressed Sales Make Up 43% of Home Sales in 2012

 

Foreclosure-related home sales are on the decline, but distressed sales continue to claim a disproportionately high portion of total home sales across the country, according to Realty Trac's most recent foreclosure and short sales report. The firm also found increases in prices for distressed properties in 2012. Foreclosure related sales made up 21% of all sales, while short sales made up 22% of sales.

     
2/27/2012

According to the 2013 Car Affordability Study by Interest.com, only in Washington could the typical household swing the payments, the median income there running $86,680 a year. At the other extreme, Tampa, Fla., was at the bottom of the 25 large cities included in the study, with a median household income of $43,832.

     
2/22/2013

House of Cards?

According to Zillow the average house in the Tampa Bay area sells for $116,300. The average household income is $46,136 according to government websites. When a hedge fund buys one of these properties they spend $30,000 to upgrade it to a $145,000 property that can justify rent of $1,500 a month...a 7+% return. The goal is to hold these houses for 3-7 years and sell at a profit.

When rent is $18,000 per year, renters insurance $600, utilities $2,400 the total cost is $21,000 or 45.5% of gross income. Last night the news featured a woman who had offered above asking price on 40 houses only to be out bid by an investment group. In the 2003-2006 period speculators bid the prices above the average citizens ability to afford. Is this happening again?

     
2/14/2013

U.S. Households Stay Out of Financial Distress for Third Straight Quarter

Only government would could come up with a rating like this. If 70% or more of the households are not experiencing credit problems they are considered to be lacking financial stress.

In Q4, 13 states were categorized as being in a state of distress after scoring less than 70. Hard-hit Nevada had the lowest score, 63.40. Mississippi ranked second with its score of 65.46 and was followed by Georgia (66.46), Alabama (67.10), and Michigan (68). The four states furthest away from a state of distress were located in the Great Plains: North Dakota (86.48), South Dakota (84.32), Wyoming (81.54), and Nebraska (79.86). Iowa was No. 5 after scoring 79.71. North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming are also among the top five for their low mortgage delinquency rate, according to data from LPS.

Among the MSAs, CredAbility deemed Minneapolis-St. Paul as the most financially fit after the metro obtained a score of 80.12. Other high scoring metros included Washington D.C. (79.23), Boston (79.07), Houston (76.04), and Denver (75.22). Three out of the five metros in the most distress were located in Florida, with Orlando leading as the most distressed MSA, followed by Las Vegas, Tampa, Riverside, and Miami.

     
1/31/13

RealtyTrac Ranks Best Metros to Buy Foreclosures in 2013

While the national trend shows home prices are rising and the supply of foreclosures is shrinking, on a more microscopic level, there are still metros where investors can find foreclosures at steep discounts and in greater abundance.

RealtyTrac compiled a list of the 20 best (and worst) metro areas to buy foreclosures in 2013. The online foreclosure marketplace took into account four factors: months’ supply of foreclosure inventory, percentage of foreclosure sales, foreclosure discount, and percentage increase in foreclosure activity in from 2011 to 2012. All metros also had a population of 500,000 or more.

In its metro foreclosure report, RealtyTrac ranked Palm Bay, Florida as the No. 1 metro for foreclosure purchases.

From 2011 to 2012, the metro saw foreclosure activity increase 308 percent, and it has a 34 months’ supply of foreclosure inventory. In addition, foreclosure discounts average 28 percent and foreclosure sales represent 24 percent of all sales.

Five other Florida metros were represented on the top 20 list, with Lakeland at No. 5, followed by Tampa (No. 6), Jacksonville (No. 7), Orlando (No. 9), and Miami (No. 12). Florida metros had an especially high percentage of foreclosure sales compared to other metros, with all of them averaging above 20 percent.

New York—a state known for its longer foreclosure timeline—also held a handful of metros on the list. The cities were Rochester (No. 2), Albany (No. 3), New York (No. 4), Poughkeepsie (No. 8), and Syracuse (No. 17). New York metros had an especially large months’ supply of inventory, with Rochester at 78 months, Albany at 86, and New York at 97, the most out of any on the list.

The metro with the highest foreclosure discount was Bridgeport, Connecticut, where foreclosure discounts average 52 percent. Overall, the metro’s ranking was No. 16. Cleveland, Ohio, also offers a notably high discount—47 percent—as well as Chicago (46 percent) and Philadelphia (43 percent).

Other cities that made the list were El Paso, Texas (No. 11); Allentown, Pennsylvania (No. 14); Youngstown, Ohio (No. 15); New Haven, Connecticut (No. 19); and Indianapolis, Indiana (No. 20).

Among the worst metros to buy foreclosures, McAllen, Texas, took the lead with its 12-month supply of foreclosure inventory. The metro has also seen a 66 percent decrease in foreclosure activity over a one-year period.

Other metros in the top five were Ogden, Utah; Little Rock, Arkansas; Las Vegas; and Salt Lake City. Hard-hit metro Phoenix also made the list and ranked No. 8.

     
January 22, 2013

Florida represents twenty-five percent of foreign buyer home purchases. For the Percentage by country in 2012. Click here

     
January 18, 2013

Foreclosures Declined in 2012, Increases Expected in 2013

RealtyTrac noted nationally foreclosures filings declined to 1.84 million homes in 2012 which was 3% less than 2011 and 36% below the peak in 2010 with 2.9 million. However, it expects 2013 to see an increase in the backlog of homes in the pipeline. In Florida the average days to foreclosure ranks 3rd nationally at an average of 853 days.

Florida ranked first in foreclosures in 2012 with 2.11 percent of homes receiving a notice during the year...well above the nation average of 1.39%. Florida claimed 20% of the nation's foreclosure inventory. The lower foreclosure inventory, over the year, contributed to sellers receiving 99% of their asking price.

     
January 15, 2013 (Florida Association of Realtors)
 
Snowbirds race to snatch up Fla. housing bargains

TORONTO – Jan. 15, 2013 – Canadians have traditionally been the dominant foreign buyers of Florida real estate, but they’re finding increased competition from Asian investors who are reportedly pouncing on Florida housing and condo deals.

“Some of our clients got beat out recently because they were waiting to book flights. Some Chinese investors bought up 35 (townhouse-condo) units without even flying in first,” Wayne Levy of Toronto-based Florida Home Finders told The Toronto Star. “They looked at a picture. They wrote checks. That’s what’s happening now.”

Asian interest in Florida real estate started picking up last year, according to industry insiders.

     
December 18, 2012

In Paris and my trip around Europe I learned there are 100,040,000 Millionaires in China who want to invest overseas. Learned many in Europe consider the U.S. a safe alternative. You can read about it on www.RoeReport.com.

     
December 6, 2012

I am getting ready to leave for Paris and the FNAMI International Real Estate Convention. When I return I'll have the ability to place my/your/our listings on the MLS systems in 100 countries, in 29 languages and 20 currencies.

     
December 2, 2012

Much is being written about the increase in property values. These numbers are the averages. At the peak distressed sales represented 27% of the market...73% was normal transactions. Currently distressed sales have fallen to around 10% of sales. When you do an average and eliminate 17% of the lowest transactions the numbers appear much larger. However, the reality is the market is treading...not increasing in value.

     
November 14, 2012

TransUnion reports Florida led the third quarter with the highest delinquency rate, which was 13.09 percent. Nevada’s rate of 10.93 percent put it at second, and New Jersey’s 8.33 percent placed it at third.

The states with the lowest rates were North Dakota (1.44 percent), South Dakota (2.21 percent), and Nebraska (2.25 percent).

     
November 13, 2012

National Associate of Realtors (NAR) projections made at the annual Realtors Conference and Expo.

Distressed sales will drop from 25% in 2012 to 8% in 2014. Existing homes ales will be up 9% in 2012 to 4.64M, going to 5.505M in 2013 and 5.3M in 2014. Prices for median price existing homes is expected to rise 5.1% in 2013 aznd 2014.

     
October 31, 2012

Dave Liniger, co-founder and chairman of RE/MAX, in an open letter to President Obama and Governor Romney says it’s disappointing that solutions to housing issues have not been at the forefront of either Presidential candidate’s campaign, particularly given that more than 3.5 million homes have been foreclosed on in the last four years and another 3 million will likely face foreclosure in the next four years. Plus, he notes more than 10.8 million households remain underwater, owing more on their mortgage than their home is currently worth.

     
October 29, 2012

Yearly price gains maintained by decrease in distressed sales.

Over the last year, REO and foreclosure auction sales have seen a significant decline, which has helped to push up prices. According to Radar Logic, motivated sales, or distressed sales of REOs or foreclosures, fell to 13 percent of the total transaction count, down from 23 percent a year ago.

     

October 18, 2012

Home Affordability Limited to Half of All Major U.S. Cities according to www.Interest.com. Low prices and interest rates are being offset by lower salaries and high employment. The increasing cost of insurance and property taxes further compounds affordability.
 
October 1, 2012

Housing is 2.4% of GDP, far below the average of 6.3% at its 2005 peak and just half its long-term average. Therefore, housing is not able to lead us out of this recession. A positive note for borrowers; mortgage rates are forecast to drop to 3.3% on a 30 year loan around the first of the year. The latest Roe Report is now available.

 

August 26, 2012

Some States Rank High on ‘Housing Misery’ Index

Are some housing markets still suffering from the blues? Trulia’s Housing Misery Index takes into account the percentage of change in home prices from a state’s peak during the last decade compared to today as well as the percentage of mortgages that are either severely delinquent or in foreclosure.

While the housing market continues to pick up across the country, some housing markets still rank high on Trulia’s Housing Misery Index. The top four states:

1.  Nevada

2.  Florida

3.  Arizona

4.  California

In those states, home prices are 40 percent below their peak, according to the report. In Nevada, home prices are nearly 60 percent below their peak. Meanwhile, Florida dominates as the state with the highest number of home owners who are either delinquent or in foreclosure.

 
August 17, 2012

According to a recent report by J.D. Power and Associates, home buyer satisfaction with national real estate companies fell to its lowest level in the history of the five-year-old survey, a record low on par with mortgage rates. Maybe that's why Cliff Roe Realty agents sell more per agent than an national chain.

 
August 6, 2012

In the first quarter of the year, the percentage of Florida mortgages in default climbed to 14.3 percent, the highest in the country and more than three times the national average (4.4 percent). In terms of prime and subprime loans in foreclosure at the end of the first quarter, Florida also ranked number one.

So far, housing recovery in the state has been shouldered mostly by increases in home sales fueled by “drastically improved affordability.” Existing single-family home sales are trending higher in Florida, removing some of the excess inventory from the market and stabilizing prices. Even so, IHS expects it will be almost a decade before the state’s home prices return to 2008 levels.

   
     
     
     
July 23, 2012

Home sales and prices picked up for Florida in June, according to housing data released by Florida Realtors.

The organization’s report shows a 5.3 percent year-over-year increase in closed single-family home sales in the Sunshine State, while pending sales jumped up 31 percent. Year-to-date, closed and pending sales are up from 2011 by 2.3 percent and 19.3 percent, respectively.

The median sales price on single-family existing homes also increased from June 2011, gliding up 8.2 percent to $151,000.

A total of 9,202 condominium/town home units sold in June, up 1.5 percent year-over-year. Florida’s median price for town home/condo properties was $110,000, a 15.8 percent jump from 2011.

In addition, the inventory for single-family homes stood at a six-months’ supply, while inventory for town home-condo properties stabilized to a 5.9 months’ supply. A six-months’ supply is widely considered a balanced market between buyers and sellers.

“The trend we’ve seen established over the past year is continuing,” said John Tuccillo, chief economist for Florida Realtors. “In June, every housing market indicator moved in the right direction. Closed sales are up, but so are pending sales, median prices, average prices and the ratio of sales price to list price. Conversely, listings are down, days on market are down and – most important – inventories are down. We have now reached a six months’ supply of inventory for existing single-family homes and 5.9-months’ supply for townhouse-condos.”

Tuccillo added that Florida Realtors expects the housing market recovery will continue in the state for the near future.

   
     
July 14, 2012

The number of U.S. homes in the foreclosure pipeline remained near an all-time high in May with judicial foreclosure states (includes Florida) posting inventory levels more than twice that in non-judicial foreclosure states. Florida, Mississippi, New Jersey, Nevada and Illinois posted the highest shares of non-current loans among states in May. Non-current loans include both delinquent loans and those in the foreclosure process.

   
     
July 12, 2012

In the first half of this year, over 1 million U.S. properties received a foreclosure filing, according to a midyear foreclosure report released by RealtyTrac Thursday. The exact figure - 1,045,801 - marks a 2 percent increase from the previous 6-month period and an 11 percent decrease from the first half of 2011. Second quarter foreclosure starts totaled 311,010, a 9 percent increase from the previous quarter and a 6 percent increase from a year ago. The increase is the first yearly rise in quarterly foreclosure starts since the fourth quarter of 2009.

Based on its database, YouWalkAway.com foresees an inevitable decrease in property values due to backlog and delays in processing foreclosures. In Florida, 45 percent of YouWalkAway.com clients are in pre-foreclosure status, and on average, they are 17 months past due and still have not received their first formal foreclosure notice.

   
     
July 3, 2012

The delinquency rate for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) moved up 12 basis points in June to 10.16 percent, reaching an all-time high, according to a report from Trepp. The foreclosure market has long anticipated commercial paper coming in

   
     
May 27, 2012

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL has fallen to 8th in the ranking of cities with the highest percentage of homes in foreclosure.
> Foreclosure rate: 1 in 315 homes
> Number of homes: 1,353,158 (17th largest market)
> Foreclosures: (April, 2012): 4,295 (8th most)
> Home price decline from peak: 48% (8th largest decline)

Residents of the Tampa, FL metro area watched the median home price in the region fall to $137,000 in the fourth quarter of 2011 — a 48% drop from its peak. The region recorded 4,295 foreclosures in April 2012. To make matters worse, that number is up from the April 2011 figure. Last April, only 2,701 new area homes were in foreclosure, meaning that foreclosures increased by 59% the past year. One in every 315 homes in this MSA had a foreclosure start this past April.
Read more: Cities With The Most Homes In Foreclosure - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/2012/05/22/large-cities-ruined-by-foreclosures/#ixzz1w5ZSzqHX

   
     
May 22, 2012

April survey show 2-3 bids per property in April but prices remained 5% below asking price. When bids forced prices up appraisers killed the deals with lower valuations. Distressed properties accounted for 47.9% of all transactions on a 3-month moving average. The average number of offers on non-distressed properties averages 1/9. Distressed properties received more offers with damaged REOs averaging 3-4 offers, move-in ready REOs 3.1 and short sales 3 offers.

   
     
May 17, 2012

RealtyTrac reports the states with the biggest annual increases in foreclosure starts included New Jersey (180 percent), Utah (179 percent), Indiana (49 percent), Pennsylvania (44 percent), Florida (43 percent), and Michigan (42 percent).

Out of the 20 largest metro areas, 11 posted annual increases in foreclosure activity, with Florida cities Tampa (59 percent) and Miami (38 percent) in the lead. Other cities with increases included St. Louis (29 percent), Chicago (26 percent), Philadelphia (24 percent), and Atlanta (21 percent).

   
     
May 10, 2012

When including distressed sales, home prices rose month-over-month by the same percentage point as they dropped year-over-year. CoreLogic reported Tuesday in its March Home Price Index (HPI) that compared to a year ago, prices declined 0.6 percent in March, while prices rose 0.6 percent compared to the month before in February. The monthly gain when including distressed sales is the first time since July 2011. Distressed sales include short sales and REO transactions.

One report does not indicate a change but its encouraging to see positive signs. It should also be noted that this is only the third month in the past five years to report a positive percentage. A more encouraging note for home buyers is the average rate on 30yr mtgs fell to 3.83%.

   
     
April 24, 2012

The U.S. housing market is likely to remain weak and may take a generation or more to rebound, Yale economics professor Robert Shiller told Reuters Insider on Tuesday.

Shiller, the co-creator of the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index, said a weak labor market, high gas prices and a general sense of unease among consumers was outweighing low mortgage rates and would likely keep a lid on prices for the foreseeable future.

"I worry that we might not see a really major turnaround in our lifetimes," Shiller said.

   
     
January, 11, 2012

Banks filed foreclosures on roughly 205,000 homes in December, the lowest monthly total since November 2007, according to RealtyTrac.

The 1.8 million foreclosures for 2011 dropped nearly 35% from 2010.

Unexpected delays kept 2011 numbers from passing the previous year's total as was originally expected. Still, one in every 69 homes received at least one filing.

"Foreclosures were in full delay mode in 2011, resulting in a dramatic drop in foreclosure activity for the year," said Brandon Moore, RealtyTrac's new CEO. "The lack of clarity regarding many of the documentation and legal issues plaguing the foreclosure industry means that we are continuing to see a highly dysfunctional foreclosure process that is inefficiently dealing with delinquent mortgages — particularly in states with a judicial foreclosure process."

Problems arose late in 2010 of improper filings at the state courthouses. Mortgage servicers and third-party firms will spend much of 2012 sorting through any financial harm done to borrowers, and settlement talks with the state attorneys general continue.

Foreclosure timelines vary wildly from state to state. It takes the longest in New York. The foreclosures completed there in the fourth quarter of 2011 took an average 1,019 days to complete, up 37% from the same period one year ago. The next longest was Florida at 964 days.

In Texas, a nonjudicial state, foreclosures took an average of 90 days to complete. The national average for the foreclosure process increased to nearly one year from start to finish: 348 days.

   
     
   
     
October 25, 2011. Latest consumer confidence report.    
     
October 24, 2011 - HUD just announced a program to sell its REO properties utilizing FHA 203k (rehab) loans with $100 down. In addition HUD will pay up to 3% of the closing cost. Homeowners who are behind on their mortgages totals 6,373,000 of which 2,172,000 are in the foreclosure process. Florida has the highest percentage of problem properties.    
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October 19, 2011 - Banks will continue to shrink as Dodd-Frank adds 24,000 pages of new regulations and fees. Banks currently hold 10% of deposits in reserves. A new mortgage requires an additional 5% to be escrowed. Banks sell loans to the GSE's but in the future they become the insurer of failed loans. The result will be fewer loans. Government regulations caused the housing boom and bust and its fix is preventing its recovery.    
     
October 3, 2011 - Just returned for the AAREA Convention in San Francisco. Banks expect to begin releasing REO properties soon. Filings at the Pinellas County Court House for the early days in November are averaging around 180 per day. Since October its been 1-5 or 0 listings going into foreclosure. 28 days after filing a hearing is held and 2 days after that a new listing is given out. You can read about supply and demand in the latest issue of the Roe Report.    
     
September 22, 2011 - in Aug. I won the top-10 award for the third time this year; I have 5,700 peers. The latest comment from the banks is to expect two REO listings for each one that sells once the moratorium is lifted from the ROBO signatures. The estimate of when to expect releases are late October or mid-point second quarter of 2012. Buyers are loving the Roe Boat.    
     
August 30, 2011-Certain members of our government are talking about selling bad loans in bulk to investors who will clear title and rent the underling properties. Large investors who can manage this type of program require 100 unit apartment complexes to cover the cost of a manager. The manager starts with D tenants, improves to C and finally B's. If this concept is approved properties won't be maintained, values in the neighborhoods will decline and the housing crisis will continue much longer than necessary. Tampa Bay price have declined 7% in the past 12 months but sales are up slightly. Since REO and Short Sales are declining in share of market this is the ideal time to sell.    
     
August 10, 2011-Stock market is suffering wild swings. Common Sense says this rollercoaster will last 7-10 days before cooler heads prevail. From a real estate prospective waterfront / luxury properties are gaining a buyer pool. Assume you were fairly well to do and lived outside the U.S.? Where is the safest place to be? Where is the world's largest economy (25% of the total)? Where is the strongest military? Where do people with diverse backgrounds get along best? What country is the world's breadbasket? We are here and naturally a little shaken, but if you were anywhere else the U.S. would be looking awfully good.    
     
August 5, 2011- The U.S. received a downgrade to AA+. The world won't end but the ride will be bumpy for a while.
     
July 21, 2011-Got caught in a storm. I was able to dock the boat without banging the pilings in 15-20 mph winds and 1' waves.
     
July 4, 2011-The Roe Boat is launched to introduce foreign buyers to our Florida lifestyle. Canadians usually know one or two Florida locations where they would like to own. Most overseas buyers also consider the Mediterranean, the Caribbean or parts of Central and South America. Since overseas buyers are 65% of my personal business I wanted to show them how good we live.

   
     
2010-Decided to buy a cruiser to help sell high-end homes. I had a presence in the waterfront condo business but was relatively unknown in the waterfront home market. I had to determine the style and features I would need. Decided it needed a bathroom, a kitchen and air conditioning. A tablet PC would allow me to write and sign offers aboard the boat. Needed Internet so bought a cell phone to act as a wi-fi hot spot. I had owned boats before but never a dual engine. Could someone teach an old dog to dock a larger boat? Yes you can. :-) Added waterfront home sales to the Roe Report.    
     
2007-While attending a real estate convention someone in the audience mentioned a couple of tragedies that had happened to Realtors resulting in the loss of lives causing their estates to lose the income from contracts under agreement and accounts receivables. I immediately volunteered to teach Disaster Recovery. As luck would have it some major banks were in the audience. Within 100 days I had over 250 REO (bank owned listings) which created the need for a staff of 11 to manage this new business. I now teach how to manage and grow a real estate business, disaster prepardness and I sit on expert panels at several conventions.    
     
2006- Launched the Roe Report. It is designed to inform buyers and sellers on the market, town by town in Pinellas County. It has links to each towns website for condo sales...waterfront only. You can read past quarters at www.RoeReport.com.    
     
2005- Having introduced Ziploc Bags and having consolidated 36 corporations into a single sales and marketing department for the world's largest consumer products company I decided to create a newsletter based on information rather than "Hi I sold something - hire me". Before I could write the newsletter the way I wanted I needed websites for each town and some of the major condos. I increased my website count to over 100 allowing me to dominate the Internet for this area.    
     
2003-moved to FL. Took the real estate brokers course so I could meet people. When someone in the class asked me where I wanted to sell....I said Sand Key and the beaches. They said you and 8,300 other agents, good luck, you will need it. I built some website and had my first closing 6 weeks later. My company was named Cliff Roe Realty and I had 3% of the waterfront condo sales after a year.    
     
1999-retired and got cancer. After beating the big C, I bought a zip code directory and built a website that ranked number 50 in worldwide traffic. Signed up a 1,000 Realtors and was doing $6.5M a week in referrals. The only Realtor I knew was my ex so I got a license; and a brokers license the next year. As an executive I had sold over $2B in businesses and had $1.6B in Mergers and Acquisitions, real estate seemed a natural transition to a new business and a good way to eliminate the boredom of retirement. Living in the NE the winters kept getting colder and colder so I decided to plan a return to Florida.